Economists' median fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth estimate was 0.2%, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Market Association's Economist Roundtable Flash Poll recently published ahead of the semiannual survey due out in June. The survey was conducted between March 27 and April 7. In December, the median estimate was -0.3%.
While the highest estimate remained at 1.5%, the low end increased to -0.7% from -1.2%.
The Federal Reserve's median GDP forecast calls for a 0.4% increase, slightly more optimistic than SIFMA's estimate. The estimates ranged from -0.2% to 1.3%.
SIFMA and the Fed's unemployment forecasts have each ticked down by 10 basis points over the past three months. The former expects a 4.4% fourth-quarter rate, while the latter projects 4.5%. However, the central bank's projection has narrowed to a 3.9% to 4.8% range from 4% to 5.3%.
SIFMA's latest survey shows economists have increased inflation expectations for the fourth quarter. They expect the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index to increase by 3% compared with 2.9% three months ago. In March, the Fed raised its projection by 20 basis points to 3.3% (2.8% to 4.1% range).
